Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 0.364235 0.423368 0.487542 0.562166 0.646356 0.738193 0.845739
2025-05-11 0.283734 0.361279 0.451911 0.564938 0.701331 0.859785 1.056907
2025-05-18 0.210964 0.294139 0.398694 0.538128 0.717344 0.937936 1.227708
2025-05-25 0.154122 0.236015 0.346878 0.504932 0.720952 1.001926 1.390330
2025-06-01 0.119000 0.200003 0.317904 0.497065 0.756423 1.111290 1.624967
2025-06-08 0.091040 0.168425 0.289657 0.485933 0.786418 1.217949 1.870282
2025-06-15 0.074607 0.151281 0.280008 0.500946 0.856721 1.390111 2.227647
2025-06-22 0.055231 0.124219 0.249304 0.478059 0.866834 1.476628 2.472576
2025-06-29 0.041909 0.104580 0.227156 0.465466 0.891668 1.588850 2.769434
2025-07-06 0.031404 0.087340 0.205565 0.449943 0.909462 1.692354 3.064699
2025-07-13 0.025716 0.078891 0.199304 0.461844 0.977150 1.885747 3.525050
2025-07-20 0.020178 0.068822 0.187326 0.460443 1.020564 2.043025 3.941750
2025-07-27 0.016096 0.061255 0.179730 0.468257 1.085921 2.251799 4.477359
2025-08-03 0.012710 0.054196 0.171554 0.473512 1.147731 2.462327 5.039075
2025-08-10 0.009090 0.044423 0.153599 0.452777 1.153263 2.569277 5.426942
2025-08-17 0.006256 0.035525 0.134944 0.425978 1.141492 2.641842 5.759672
2025-08-24 0.004668 0.030419 0.125585 0.420670 1.177129 2.813241 6.297617
2025-08-31 0.003414 0.025761 0.115904 0.412241 1.204348 2.970817 6.824301
2025-09-07 0.002774 0.023678 0.114256 0.426328 1.288556 3.258044 7.635385
2025-09-14 0.001903 0.019304 0.102412 0.407231 1.286839 3.359624 8.078883
2025-09-21 0.001350 0.016221 0.094121 0.396931 1.306162 3.509955 8.637025
2025-09-28 0.000932 0.013454 0.085728 0.383935 1.316049 3.639857 9.163268
2025-10-05 0.000741 0.012338 0.084338 0.394791 1.394007 3.936275 10.072534